Statistical cures and other fallacies
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Frequency illusions and other fallacies
Cosmides and Tooby (1996) increased performance using a frequency rather than probability frame on a problem known to elicit base-rate neglect. Analogously, Gigerenzer (1994) claimed that the conjunction fallacy disappears when formulated in terms of frequency rather than the more usual single-event probability. These authors conclude that a module or algorithm of mind exists that is able to co...
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The Ecological Fallacy and the complexity of the appropriate weightings to apply for aggregated vs individual data, has recently been subjected to scrutiny in this journal. In 1981, three Frenchmen, Ducimetière, Cambien and Richard, coined the term The French Paradox, after having compared levels of heart disease with fat intake data provided by The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Dev...
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The work of Tversky and Kahneman on intuitive probability judgment leads to the following prediction: The judged probability that an instance belongs to a category is an increasing function of the typicality of the instance in the category. To test this prediction, subjects in Experiment 1 read a description of a person (e.g., "Linda is 31, bright, ... outspoken") followed by a category. Some s...
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Euro-Canadians and Chinese typically hold different theories about change; Euro-Canadians often engage in linear thinking whereas Chinese often engage in non-linear thinking. The present research investigated the effects of culture-specific theories of change in two related gambling fallacies: the gambler's fallacy (GF; the belief that one is due for a win after a run of losses) and the hot-han...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Multiple Sclerosis Journal
سال: 2012
ISSN: 1352-4585,1477-0970
DOI: 10.1177/1352458512439440